There are a number of reasons that can make an odd drop or rise and we usually relate such changes to data received especially on live streaming feature depending on the bookmaker chosen. We can receive notifications to except or decline odd changes during the match and usually a rise is represented by green while odds dropping are shown in red.
The dropping odds are viewed by professional as the possible favorite to win since the bookmaker is balancing the amount payable if the picked odd is backed by a punter and ensures the picked odd value can be paid.
What Does Dropping Odds Mean?
This simply means that the bookmaker is updating their odd prices based on data received during the match and can be used as a source of information. Professional punters will use this information to decide the possible outcome and the numbers don’t lie.
The odds gives the information on the reason why the bookmaker is lowering odds and the common answer is that the bookmaker is ensuring that the money placed as wagers on the dropping odds is enough to payout and also make a profit.
Another reason for playing close attention to dropping odds is to get information on the momentum and this means that you are trying to catch the lower odds before the system is able to fully adjust. But if you can identify rising winning odds you can profit from this, although it is unlike and therefore dropping odds are sure indication of a winner.
The main reason for dropping is the high number of punters placing bets on the odds provide and these balances the payout in the short term.
Respected odds makers
There well-established bookies offering market odds that are compared and used by other bookmakers in the world market. Punters usually depend on sites like (pinnacle, SBOBET etc.) to monitor odd movement in the betting market and this changes influence other bookmakers’ odd movement.
The main reason why they have built a market reputation is due to the best odds offered in a variety of sportsbooks markets and has become their business model for years. Looking at the odds minutes before the match starts is key and we can identify value for money in the odds offered. The trick is to understand why the odds are dropping and from here we can make a decision whether to back the odds.
Dropping odds is it a Myth or Reality?
There is a lot of chatter on dropping odds and each punter may offer different opinions about odds. The odds we have determined are made from data received the numbers offered do not lie and basing odds on winning percentages may result in the odd value dropping significantly. The myth surrounding dropping odds is that they are possible favorites to win since odds usually back winning teams while underdogs may spot rising odds, meaning the possibility of winning is low. The myth is generated from the odds and if happen to back dropping odds the winning percentage is increased significantly.
However, reality kicks in when the bookmaker decides to follow bets picked in a specific directions and will affect the odds to drop. The crowd effect is viewed by the bookie as directions to automatically drop odds based on number of wagers placed and it affects the odd in the short term.
Dropping Odds are not Always Right
These is generally referred to as “the heavy boat theory” in betting it means that a large number of punters are placing wagers and this should not be seen as winning options. Backing overrated bets is considered a risk more than playing it safe since odds change for a number of reason and viewing dropping odds as sure winners is highly discouraged. Overloading a boat may prevent its floating capacity and may end up sinking just like betting we should not view an overloaded side as winner but we should also consider other factors.
It’s common for favorites to lose even after being backed by the “crowd effect” and underrated odd prices.
What to watch for in dropping odds
- Check out odds on the comparison website since bookmakers may initially not change them immediately.
- Compare initial odds and the current odds before rushing to place bets.
- Make a list of few reputable websites than can help in comparison of odds.
Dropping Odds Betting Strategy
- Follow the right tipsters to get the best betting information and place bets on different platforms to ensure we profit from dropping odds.
- Be quick and smart in discovering factors affecting odds and this generally information on the in-play event like injuries or red cards. If there is no supporting reason for change we should consider backing the profitable odds offered.
- Check for global movement through different bookmakers this may seem difficult but can be an important tool if used well.
- The total percentage change on odds should be around 15% or lower and anything above this is not considered as a winning dropping odd.
Going against the odds; Alternative betting
The alternative to dropping odds is going against the odds and this changes the view of the bookie towards a match prediction. The change ensure that odds don’t correspond with the original match prediction hence finding higher odds is possible, compared to weighing team strengths.
How do bookies affect the market?
Online bookmakers play simple mind games on odd values to stimulate movement and usually bookmakers watch the total money a bet gets. Let’s say favorite team is backed with a lot of wagers than the underdog then the bookmaker will lower the odds on the favorite to win. This is due to the “crowd effect”, whereby different punters are placing wagers in the same direction.
In order to fully benefit from dropping odds we need to develop an odds movement strategy that can identify matches and odds. Catching odds before they drop is a skill if mastered can be highly profitable compared to backing already dropped odds.
