I was asked this question recently: Do bookmakers fix matches? This is certainly a hot topic, full of myths and real concerns. The short answer, for any reputable, licensed bookmaker, is an emphatic no. The long answer is more interesting. It dives into the fundamental business model of a bookmaker, which most people misunderstand.
People often think of a bookmaker as a giant gambler, taking a massive position against the public. That’s not how they operate.
What Does “Fixing Matches” Even Mean?
Match-fixing happens when players, coaches, referees, or others involved in a game deliberately influence the outcome for personal gain. This could mean throwing a game, scoring a specific number of points, or even just affecting small parts like a penalty kick. The goal is usually to make money through bets placed on that rigged result.
Bookmakers, or sportsbooks, are the companies that set the odds and take your bets. They’re in the business of making profit by balancing the books ensuring they pay out less than they take in.
The Bookmaker’s Real Business Model: The Balanced Book
Think of a bookmaker not as a gambler, but as a market maker. Their goal is not to bet on one team to win. Their goal is to create a market where they profit regardless of the outcome. They do this by building a margin known as the “vigorish” or “juice” into their odds and encouraging balanced action on both sides.Imagine a grocery store.
The owner doesn’t care if you buy apples or oranges. They just want to sell all their fruit at a price that covers their costs and guarantees them a profit. A bookmaker is the same. They don’t care who wins the game; they just want to “sell” all their bets at a price (the odds) that guarantees them a profit.
Let’s look at a simple example. Consider a Total Goals market in a soccer match, Over/Under 2.5 goals.A perfectly even market with no margin would have odds of 2.00 for the Over and 2.00 for the Under. But you’ll never see that. Instead, you’ll see something like this:
- Over 2.5 Goals: 1.90
- Under 2.5 Goals: 1.90
Let’s do the math. The implied probability of an outcome is calculated as (1 / decimal odds).
- Implied probability of Over: 1/1.90 =0.5263), or 52.63%
- Implied probability of Under: /1.90 =0.5263), or 52.63%
Now, add those probabilities together: 52.63% + 52.63% = 105.26%
That extra 5.26% is the bookmaker’s margin. Their ideal scenario is to take an equal amount of money on both the Over and the Under.Let’s say they take $100,000 in bets on the Over and $100,000 on the Under.
- Total money taken in: $200,000
If the match ends with 3 or more goals (Over wins):
- They pay out $100,000 times 1.90 = $190,000 to the Over bettors.
- They keep the $100,000 from the losing Under bets.
- Their profit:$200,000 – $190,000 = $10,000
If the match ends with 2 or fewer goals (Under wins):
- They pay out $100,000 times 1.90 = $190,000 to the Under bettors.
- They keep the $100,000 from the losing Over bets.
- Their profit: $200,000 – $190,000 = $10,000
As you can see, with a balanced book, they make a guaranteed, risk-free profit.
Why Fixing a Match is Terrible for Business
Now, consider the risks of fixing a match from the bookmaker’s perspective:
- It Destroys Their Business Model: Fixing a match means creating an unbalanced book on purpose. They would have to take a massive gamble on one outcome. This is the exact opposite of their safe, profitable, day-to-day strategy.
- Legal Consequences: Match-fixing is a serious crime. We’re talking about massive fines, prison sentences for the people involved, and the immediate and permanent loss of their operating license.
- Reputational Ruin: If a bookmaker were ever proven to be fixing events, they would lose all trust from the betting public overnight. Their brand would be worthless, and their business would be finished.
Why would they risk a multi-million dollar, licensed business that prints guaranteed money for a single, high-risk score? The risk-reward calculation is laughably bad.
So, Who Does Fix Matches?
Match-fixing is real, but the bookmakers are the victims, not the perpetrators.The fixing is almost always orchestrated by outside elements:
- Illegal Betting Syndicates: These groups operate outside the law and look for opportunities to defraud the legal bookmakers with inside information.
- Corrupt Players or Officials: Individuals who are bribed to influence a specific outcome of an event (e.g., a tennis player to lose the first set, a soccer player to get a yellow card, a referee to award a penalty).
Their goal is to know the outcome beforehand and place huge bets with multiple bookmakers before they can react.
Real-World Examples and Exceptions
While bookmakers themselves aren’t usually the fixers, match-fixing does happen, often driven by outside syndicates or individuals. Here are a few notable cases I’ve followed:
- The 1919 Black Sox Scandal: In baseball, players from the Chicago White Sox threw the World Series for gamblers. Bookmakers weren’t directly involved; it was players and external bettors. This led to lifetime bans and stricter rules in sports.
- Football Scandals in Europe: In the 2000s, the Calciopoli scandal in Italy involved referees and club officials manipulating games. Betting syndicates profited, but major bookmakers reported suspicious activity to authorities. More recently, in 2013, Europol uncovered a massive fixing ring in football, affecting hundreds of matches. Again, bookmakers helped by alerting officials to odd betting patterns.
- Tennis and Smaller Sports: Lower-level tennis matches have seen fixes because they’re easier to influence (one player can control the outcome). The Tennis Integrity Unit has banned players based on betting data from sportsbooks. Bookmakers don’t orchestrate this; they often provide the evidence to stop it.
Match-fixing exists, but it’s usually players, officials, or criminal groups, not the sportsbooks
