On the surface, it makes sense. The favorite is, by definition, the horse the market believes is most likely to win. And to be fair, favorites do win a lot. Depending on the track, the type of race, and the sample size, you’ll see favorites win somewhere between 30% and 35% of the time. However, any seasoned horse racing bettor will tell you, the simple answer is rarely the profitable one.
What Makes a Horse a Favorite?
First off, let’s clarify what we’re talking about. In horse racing, the favorite is the horse with the lowest odds, meaning the betting public thinks it’s most likely to win. Odds are set based on how much money is wagered on each horse, and they reflect the crowd’s opinion. For example, if a horse is listed at 2/1 (or even money in some spots), it’s a strong favorite because bettors expect it to perform well.
From my time at the races, I’ve seen favorites win about 30-35% of the time on average. That’s higher than any other single horse in the field, but it also means they lose more often than they win; about two out of three races.
The Case for Betting on Favorites
There are good reasons to consider backing favorites, especially if you’re building confidence or managing your bankroll carefully.
- Higher Win Rate: As I mentioned, favorites cross the finish line first more often. If you’re new to betting, starting with these picks can give you a thrill without as much heartbreak. I’ve had days where sticking to short-priced horses kept me in the green, even if the payouts weren’t huge.
- Lower Risk for Steady Gains: Betting on favorites is like playing it safe. You might not hit a big score, but consistent small wins can add up. Think of it as grinding out profits over time. For instance, if you bet $10 on a 1/1 favorite and it wins, you get $20 back (your stake plus $10 profit). Do that a few times, and it’s better than chasing longshots that flop.
- Good for Certain Strategies: Favorites shine in parlays or accumulators where you need multiple wins to cash in. They’re also solid in races with small fields or when the horse has clear advantages, like a top jockey or recent wins. I’ve backed favorites in maiden races (where horses are less experienced) because the standout often dominates.
In short, if your style is about reliability over excitement, favorites can be your friend.
The Downsides of Backing Favorites
But hold your horses—it’s not all smooth sailing. Here’s where things get tricky, based on what I’ve learned from both wins and losses.
- Low Payouts: The biggest knock is the slim rewards. Odds on favorites are short because everyone bets them, so the return on investment is low. If a horse is 1/2, your $10 bet wins just $5 profit. Compare that to a 10/1 underdog netting $100 profit on the same stake. Over time, you need a high win rate to make it worthwhile, and even then, one loss can wipe out several small gains.
- No Value in the Odds: This is key for any smart bettor. Value means the odds are better than the horse’s actual chance of winning. Favorites often get overbet, so their odds drop below true value. For example, if a horse has a 40% chance of winning (true odds of 3/2), but the crowd pushes it to 1/1, you’re not getting a fair deal.
- Unpredictable Factors: Horse racing has surprises—bad starts, track conditions, or a hot underdog can upset the favorite. I’ve seen top picks stumble due to mud, a poor draw, or just an off day. Data shows favorites underperform in big fields or high-stakes races like the Kentucky Derby, where chaos reigns.
If you’re always on favorites, you might miss out on bigger opportunities and end up frustrated when they don’t deliver.
When Should You Back Favorites?
So, should you do it? It depends on your goals, the race, and your research. Here’s my advice from years of betting:
- Yes, If There’s Value: Always compare the odds to your assessment. Study the form guide: look at past performances, speed figures, trainer stats, and jockey records. If the favorite looks dominant and the price is fair, go for it. Tools like Racing Post or Equibase can help with this.
- In Specific Race Types: Favorites do well in allowance races or with proven horses. Avoid them in handicaps where weights even the field, or in sprints where speed bursts can surprise.
- Combine with Other Bets: Don’t just win bet—try place or show bets for safer returns, or exactas pairing the favorite with a contender for better payouts.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Only bet what you can afford. A rule I follow: never risk more than 5% of your bankroll on one race. If favorites fit your conservative approach, use them to build slowly.
From experience, I’ve had success mixing favorites with occasional longshots. One memorable day at Belmont, I backed a 3/5 favorite in the feature race and won enough to fund riskier picks later.
Alternatives to Betting Favorites
If favorites aren’t clicking, consider these options for more excitement and potential profit:
- Underdogs and Value Bets: Hunt for horses at 5/1 or higher with overlooked strengths, like improving form or a good post position. These can pay big when they hit.
- Exotic Wagers: Trifectas or superfectas let you include favorites while adding longer shots for multipliers.
- Systems and Data: Use stats to your advantage. Track biases (some favor inside posts) or weather impacts. Apps and software can crunch numbers faster than poring over papers.
Remember, no strategy wins every time; racing is about probabilities, not certainties.
